Estelle Amani Konan

RESUME

L’objectif de cette étude est de réexaminer la relation développement financier – croissance économique dans l’UEMOA sur la période 1990-2015. Respectivement par l’estimation d’un panel à effet aléatoire panel et par la méthode des MCO, nous estimons le modèle de croissance avec secteur bancaire et le modèle de croissance avec marché financier. Les résultats montrent qu’il existe une relation non linéaire entre le développement financier et la croissance économique dans l’UEMOA. Alors, comme perspectives de développement du marché financier de l’UEMOA, nous analysons la possibilité d’une intégration financière internationale de l’UEMOA en déterminant l’impact de l’intégration financière internationale sur le développement financier et sur la croissance économique. Les résultats des estimations par la méthode des variables instrumentales (IV) et par les MCO nous donnent des résultats ambigus qui montrent qu’une intégration financière internationale est très risquée et qu’il est préférable d’aller vers une intégration financière régionale au sein de la CEDEAO.

Mots clés : intégration financière, développement financier, secteur bancaire, marché boursier, croissance économique

Classification JEL : E44, G15, F36

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   Oziengbe Scott Aigheyisi

Abstract

The paper employs the DOLS estimation technique to investigate the effect of FDI on domestic investment in Nigeria. The effects of interactions between FDI and financial system development and, FDI and secondary school enrolment (proxy for human capital) are also investigated. The empirical evidence indicates that the effect of FDI on domestic investment is positive, but not statistically significant. It however finds that when interacted with financial system development, FDI positively and significantly affects domestic investment. The study also finds that the effect of interaction between FDI and secondary school enrolment on domestic investment is negative. This is indicative of existence of a threshold level of human capital development required for FDI to positively affect domestic investment. Further evidence from the study are that low rate of inflation is favourable to domestic investment whereas high rate of inflation adversely affects domestic investment. Trade openness is also observed to negatively affect domestic investment in the country. Policy recommendations emanating from the study include proper regulation of the financial system to enhance its development, efforts by the government to improve the quality and functionality of secondary education in the country, targeting low inflation rate and infant industry protection.

Keywords: Foreign Direct Investment, Financial System Development, Human Capital, Inflation, Trade Openness, Domestic Investment, DOLS

JEL Classification Codes: E22, E24, E31, E44, F21, F43, I26, P33, P45.

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Moses K. Tule, S.A. Abdulsalam, C.C. Chiemeke

Abstract

This paper investigates world oil prices, volatility transmission, hedging and the stock market in ECOWAS countries. The study employs Constant Conditional Correlation CCC model and VAR-GARCH model and the bivariate form of multivariate GARCH models. The study found that the return spillover from stock price to oil price estimates are not statistically significant for Ghana and WAEMU countries indicating that the returns in the stock market do not significantly influence the returns in the oil market. However, the return spillover in the case of Nigeria is statistically significant. The outcome of the optimal weights and hedging ratios of holding the two assets (stock and oil markets) revealed that investors should acquire more stocks than oil in their portfolio in all countries to curtail the risk without reducing the expected returns.

Keywords: Multivariate GARCH, Volatility spillovers, Hedging, Conditional correlations, Crude oil prices, Stock indices.

JEL Classifications: C22, C32, G17, G32

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Fiscal Policy And Current Asset In Sub Saharan Africa (1980 – 2015)

Temidaya O. Akinbobola Akinlo, Taiwo

Abstract
This study examined the impact of fiscal policy on current account in sub-Saharan Africa for the period of 1980-2015. The study used pooled OLS, Fixed effect and Dynamic GMM techniques for the analysis. We examine the relationship between fiscal policy and current account in 21 sub-Saharan African countries. We also examine the impact of fiscal policy on current account in 9 oil producing countries and 11 non-oil producing countries in sub-Saharan Africa to see if the fiscal policy will exact different impact on current account due to the effect of oil price volatility on oil producing countries. In the full sample and non-oil producing countries, the results show that fiscal policy proxy by government consumption has negative and significant impact on current account. In the oil producing countries, the results show that an increase in government consumption could not exalt significant impact on current account due to the saving of proceed of oil boom and reinvest it in abroad. In all the estimations both in the full sample, non-oil and oil producing countries the results show that increase in investment and interest rate worsen the situation of the current account. while increase in GDP growth improve current account significantly.
Keywords: current account, fiscal policy, sub-Saharan Africa, panel data, Dynamic GMM

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Hassan O.  Ozekhome

Abstract

 Determining an appropriate exchange rate regime that enhances macroeconomic performance and macroeconomic stability is a viable policy strategy for accelerating greater economic integration, particularly given the current state of affairs, regarding the proposed single currency drive for West Africa. It is against this backdrop that this paper empirically investigates the determinants of the choice of exchange rate regime in the WAMZ over the period 19995-2015. It reviews the key empirical and policy issues associated with it, and assess the state of play in the debate, as well as the costs and benefits of each regime. Adopting a multinomial logit regression model, the empirical results reveal that growth rate of real GDP, domestic openness, foreign reserves, government consumption, inflation rate and inflation variability are significant variables that influence the choice of exchange rate regime in the WAMZ at any point in time or across time. The paper recommends amongst others; the adoption of sound monetary and fiscal policies in the zone in order to enhance macroeconomic performance, increase policy coordination and harmonization, strong political will and commitment, and legal and institutional structures that will facilitate the long-run goal of monetary union in the WAMZ.

Keywords: Exchange rate regimes, Convergence, Optimum currency areas, Policy coordination.

JEL Classification: F02, F31

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Seydi A. Dieng
Résumé
Les relations commerciales et financières entre la Chine et les pays de la Zone franc se sont intensifiées ces dernières années. Cet article se propose d’étudier l’effet des échanges commerciaux sino-Zone franc sur la croissance économique des pays de cette zone. Pour apprécier cet impact, nous avons utilisé un modèle dynamique en données de panel. Ce modèle dérive de celui de Solow (1956) augmenté par Mankiw, Romer et Weil (1992). L’estimation de ce modèle a été réalisée à partir de la méthode des moments généralisés (GMM). Les principaux résultats révèlent que le taux d’épargne et les exportations vers la Chine des pays de la
Zone franc ont un impact positif et très significatif sur leur taux de croissance par tête.
Mots clés : importations, exportations, ouverture commerciale, IDE, Zone franc, méthode GMM
Classification JEL : F140, C230

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Moses K. Tule and Victor Ugbem Oboh

Abstract

The paper empirically investigates the nexus between financial development and export diversification in Nigeria.  Using the ARDL approach with annual data covering 1981 to 2015, the findings suggest that financial development is a significant requirement for diversifying Nigeria’s export base. Specifically, the study indicates that a 1per cent increase in domestic credit to the private sector would lead to 0.046 per cent increase in export diversification. For a developing economy like Nigeria that is eager to diversify, these findings suggest that government should design macroeconomic policies that would encourage the channeling of more affordable credit to the private sector.

 

JEL Codes: E44, G20, O16.

 

Keywords: Financial development, diversification, ARDL, private sector.

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Mbaye Diene

Résumé
Une redistribution des revenus et du bien-être s’est effectuée au Burkina Faso et au Sénégal grâce aux réformes fiscales entreprises dans le cadre de l’Union Economique et Monétaire Ouest Africaine, avec l’harmonisation des taxes indirectes et l’adoption d’un tarif extérieur commun. Nous avons évalué l’ampleur de l’iniquité horizontale issue de cette redistribution, avec un indice qui se décompose en deux éléments, l’un tenant compte des caractéristiques distributives d’un système de taxes de référence équitable, l’autre exprimant une iniquité calculée comme une fraction du revenu moyen. Nous trouvons que le Burkina a beaucoup plus bénéficié des réformes. Cela est expliqué surtout par la part relativement importante de l’évasion fiscale, avec l’autoconsommation et le secteur informel, et par le fait que la plupart des biens consommés par les ménages pauvres ne sont pas passibles de taxation.
JEL classification : C14, D31, D63, H23
Mots-clés : Réformes fiscales; inégalités de revenus, redistribution, iniquité horizontale.

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Moses K. Tule, Adegoke I Adeleke, Udoma J. Afangideh and Austin Ujunwa

The current global commodity price shocks have affected many commodity dependent countries and also raised serious concerns on the viability of regional blocks whose member countries are predominantly commodity-based economies. ECOWAS sub-region typifies evidence of primary export as the main source of income and foreign exchange, thereby making them susceptible to commodity price shocks. This paper, therefore, examines the effect of commodity price shocks on 13 ECOWAS member countries using both static and dynamic panel data analysis for the period 2000 – 2015. The results clearly show that there is a positive and statistically significant relationship between commodity prices (energy and precious metals) and per capita income in the sub-region. However, a negative relationship was observed between non-energy prices and per capita income. The implication of the result is that declining commodity prices (energy and precious metals) has the tendency of deteriorating per capita income and thus the standard of living of the populace in the ECOWAS sub-region. This result reinforces the need to rethink the issues of regional integration agenda not only along monetary lines, but also along diversification integration.

Key Word: Energy Prices, Panel Analysis, ECOWAS

JEL Classification: Q43, O13 and C23

• Macroeconomic Effect of Commodity Price Shocks

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